Global memory makers are reportedly halting traditional quotations and moving to “daily pricing” for select DRAM and NAND products, signaling a highly volatile and rapidly appreciating market. This unprecedented shift comes as major investment banks forecast a significant “super cycle” for the memory industry, driven primarily by the insatiable demand from the artificial intelligence sector.
Wall Street Forecasts Price Hikes and Shortages
According to recent analyses from leading financial institutions, the memory market is experiencing a dramatic resurgence. Morgan Stanley reports that memory chip manufacturers have already implemented significant price increases, with contract prices for Q4 2024 seeing hikes of up to 25%. The investment bank predicts that the industry is in a “strong upward cycle,” with these price increases expected to continue well into Q3 2025. To add, NAND Flash prices could potentially double from current levels, returning to the highs last seen in Q2 2022.
The optimistic outlook is echoed by Goldman Sachs, which foresees an “AI-driven hardware investment boom” bringing substantial benefits to the memory sector. Perhaps the most striking forecast comes from Citi, which warns of impending memory chip shortages. The bank’s research indicates that the escalating AI demand will trigger significant supply shortfalls for both DRAM and NAND Flash, projecting that market supply will fall short of demand by as early as 2026.
Market Volatility Sparks “Daily Pricing”
The move by memory makers like Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, and others to daily pricing reflects a market where demand is rapidly outstripping supply. This dynamic pricing model allows manufacturers to adjust to real-time market conditions, capitalizing on strong demand and protecting against the volatility caused by rapid price appreciation.
A New Era for Tech Manufacturing
The implications are far-reaching, from impacting the cost of consumer electronics to influencing the scalability of data centers and advanced AI compute clusters. As the AI revolution continues to accelerate, the memory industry finds itself at the epicenter of this technological transformation. The current market trends also suggest that the era of abundant, low-cost memory may be drawing to a close, ushering in a new phase of elevated prices and strategic supply management.
